Description
An encompassing selection of external factors that are likely to have a significant direct or indirect effect on the studied system (drivers) is crucial for scenario processes.
The SPROUT project identified transition drivers following the PESTEL approach (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political) for conducting trend analysis. This is a framework used to analyze and monitor the macro-environmental factors that may have a profound impact on an organization or other entity.
-
- Political factors relate to the extent of government influence on the economy and its consequences for transport and mobility, including tax policy, regulatory prices, political stability, and corruption. Those may also include goods and services that the government wishes to provide and/or support or is required to provide (i.e. foreign trade policies and trade restrictions).
- Economic drivers reflect how the urban economy is changing due to new (more flexible) employment, increasing tourism, new business models largely driven by digitalization, economic growth and crisis, and changing consumption patterns. All of these have an impact on mobility, for instance in terms of higher travel volumes or the growing demand for alternative modes of transport.
- Social drivers are having a profound impact on mobility as a result of increasing long-distance movements due to migration, modernist urban planning that can lead to higher density and gentrification in inner cities, aging population structures in most of Europe, and more health- and environmentally-conscious generations that support an active transport infrastructure while increasingly rejecting car ownership.
- Technological developments have the potential to guide future development, heading towards electrification of the mobility system, the introduction of smart city technology, and citizen- and consumer-oriented digitalization and automation in the long run. These trends can pose a challenge for urban planners and city authorities, as they are accompanied by demands to change networks, e.g. in terms of charging stations, digital booking, and information systems, or increased road safety.
- Environmental and climate change impacts of (and on) transport are forcing cities to encourage a shift from cars to sustainable modes of transport. In addition to the well-known global impacts of climate change, local environmental quality related to air pollution and noise pollution in cities has become a major focus of transport and mobility planning, which also necessitates the introduction of low emission zones, speed limits, downsizing of infrastructure or electrification of public and private transport.
- While legal factors overlap to some extent with political drivers, they also include more specific laws that impact mobility, such as labor laws, consumer protection laws, data and privacy laws, and health and safety laws. Globally operating mobility actors need to comply with laws that differ from country to country. Furthermore, it is important to be aware of possible changes in legislation and their implications for future mobility systems.
Understanding the directional trends of the drivers, and the linkages between the drivers and the trends form a key part of scenario building. For details about these linkages, please see SPROUT’s catalogue of urban mobility transition drivers.
Moreover, gaining an understanding of the urban mobility stakeholders that affect or are being affected by the transition is also important. SPROUT has generated a catalogue of urban mobility stakeholders that can be used as a guide for identifying relevant stakeholders who might be needed to be consulted or informed in the scenario-building process.
More information on the SPROUT drivers can be found in the following video presentation, from minutes 26′ to 32′.
SPROUT materials and tools
- SPROUT D2.1 Urban Mobility Transition Inventory
- SPROUT D2.3 Urban Mobility Transition Drivers
Other relevant tools and methods
Data required
Expert and stakeholder knowledge
Further information
This section is based on
- SPROUT Deliverable 2.1: Urban mobility transition inventory, written by Geert te Boveldt, Imre Keseru, Mareile Wiegmann, Cathy Macharis (VUB); Frederic Rudolph, Stefan Werland (WI), Aristos Halatsis (CERTH), Teresa de la Cruz, Beatriz Royo (ZLC), Maria Eugenia Lopez Lambas, Maria Amor Ariza Alvarez, Julio Soria-Lara (UPM), and
- SPROUT Deliverable 3.1: City-specific urban mobility scenarios, written by Sara Tori, Geert te Boveldt, Imre Keseru, Cathy Macharis (VUB)
