{"id":447,"date":"2022-08-26T20:24:53","date_gmt":"2022-08-26T20:24:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/?page_id=447"},"modified":"2023-02-15T13:37:15","modified_gmt":"2023-02-15T13:37:15","slug":"foresee-scenarios-for-assessing-the-impacts-of-emerging-urban-mobility-environments","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/foresee-scenarios-for-assessing-the-impacts-of-emerging-urban-mobility-environments\/","title":{"rendered":"2. Foreseeing through Scenario Building"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column width=&#8221;2\/3&#8243;][vc_column_text]<span data-contrast=\"none\">Scenarios are a means to support decision-making under uncertainty of future developments. As seen in the previous section, transition processes result from the confluence of hard-to-foresee, and sometimes disruptive developments in different fields of action that may influence the state of the urban mobility system in the future.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"none\">This section deals with the questions: Which purpose do scenarios and visualizations fulfill? what is the role of visualizations and scenario-building in the policy process; and how can scenarios and visualizations contribute to evidence-based decisions? Below you will find an introductory video presentation by Sara Tori from VUB-Mobilise. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span>[\/vc_column_text]<style type=\"text\/css\">@media (min-width:992px){.empty_space69d581236636b {padding-top: 20;}}@media (max-width:991px){.empty_space69d581236636b {padding-top: 15;}}@media (max-width:600px){.empty_space69d581236636b {padding-top: 10;}}<\/style><div class=\"pt-plus-empty-space empty_space69d581236636b \" data-uid=\"empty_space69d581236636b\" ><\/div><style><\/style><div class=\"pt_plus_video-box-shadow video_player69d58123663f5\"><div class=\"pt_plus_video_player   \"><div class=\"ts-video-wrapper embed-container  ts-type-youtube\"><iframe width=\"100%\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/dE7ln3WPOhs?modestbranding=1&amp;rel=0&amp;autohide=1&amp;showtitle=0\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div><\/div><\/div>[vc_column_text]<span data-contrast=\"auto\">Deriving a set of scenarios of what the future <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">could possibly<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> look like is a strategic planning approach for identifying and validating &#8216;robust&#8217; policy responses under uncertain future developments. \u2018Robustness\u2019 means that the selected policy responses are appropriate and add value under different possible future scenarios and under different levels of uncertainty.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Note that scenario processes do not aim at predicting how the future will look, but to derive a set of alternative, possible futures!\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This section encapsulates steps towards deriving plausible \u201cdo-nothing\u201d scenarios that represent no policy interventions. These are crucial for understanding the impacts of emerging urban mobility environments, and for feeding into later stages relating to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/implementing-and-evaluating-pilots-pilots-setup-running-testing\/\">integrating mobility innovations<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/formulating-a-city-led-innovative-policy-response\/\">responding through policy measures and packages<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The following steps have been taken in the context of the SPROUT project to create holistic mobility scenarios for its project cities:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/foresee-scenarios-for-assessing-the-impacts-of-emerging-urban-mobility-environments\/understanding-drivers-that-affect-the-mobility-system\/\">Understanding the drivers that affect the mobility system<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/foresee-scenarios-for-assessing-the-impacts-of-emerging-urban-mobility-environments\/co-creating-and-utilizing-scenarios\/\">Co-creating and utilizing scenarios<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/foresee-scenarios-for-assessing-the-impacts-of-emerging-urban-mobility-environments\/assessing-the-impacts-of-mobility-scenarios\/\">Assessing the impacts of future mobility scenarios<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text]<style type=\"text\/css\">@media (min-width:992px){.empty_space69d581236641a {padding-top: 20;}}@media (max-width:991px){.empty_space69d581236641a {padding-top: 15;}}@media (max-width:600px){.empty_space69d581236641a {padding-top: 10;}}<\/style><div class=\"pt-plus-empty-space empty_space69d581236641a \" data-uid=\"empty_space69d581236641a\" ><\/div><div id=\"ultimate-heading-224169d5812366481\" class=\"uvc-heading ult-adjust-bottom-margin ultimate-heading-224169d5812366481 uvc-4554 \" data-hspacer=\"no_spacer\"  data-halign=\"left\" style=\"text-align:left\"><div class=\"uvc-heading-spacer no_spacer\" style=\"top\"><\/div><div class=\"uvc-main-heading ult-responsive\"  data-ultimate-target='.uvc-heading.ultimate-heading-224169d5812366481 h4'  data-responsive-json-new='{\"font-size\":\"\",\"line-height\":\"\"}' ><h4 style=\"font-weight:bold;color:#4b6584;\">SPROUT materials and tools<\/h4><\/div><\/div>[vc_column_text]This section is based on:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>SPROUT Deliverable 2.1: Urban mobility transition inventory, written by Geert te Boveldt, Imre Keseru, Mareile Wiegmann, Cathy Macharis (VUB); Frederic Rudolph, Stefan Werland (WI), Aristos Halatsis (CERTH), Teresa de la Cruz, Beatriz Royo (ZLC), Maria Eugenia Lopez Lambas, Maria Amor Ariza Alvarez, Julio Soria-Lara (UPM), and<\/li>\n<li>SPROUT Deliverable 2.2, written by: Geert te Boveldt, Imre Keseru, Sara Tori, Cathy Macharis, (VUB), Beatriz Royo, Teresa de la Cruz (ZLC<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/3&#8243;]<div id=\"ultimate-heading-608069d58123664d5\" class=\"uvc-heading ult-adjust-bottom-margin ultimate-heading-608069d58123664d5 uvc-8774 \" data-hspacer=\"no_spacer\"  data-halign=\"left\" style=\"text-align:left\"><div class=\"uvc-heading-spacer no_spacer\" style=\"top\"><\/div><div class=\"uvc-main-heading ult-responsive\"  data-ultimate-target='.uvc-heading.ultimate-heading-608069d58123664d5 h4'  data-responsive-json-new='{\"font-size\":\"\",\"line-height\":\"\"}' ><h4 style=\"font-weight:bold;color:#4b6584;\">Sub-Topics<\/h4><\/div><\/div>[vc_column_text]<div id=\"shailan-subpages-447-1\"><ul class=\"subpages\"><li class=\"page_item page-item-581\"><a href=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/foresee-scenarios-for-assessing-the-impacts-of-emerging-urban-mobility-environments\/understanding-drivers-that-affect-the-mobility-system\/\" title=\"Understanding the drivers that affect the mobility system\" rel=\"\">Understanding the drivers that affect the mobility system<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-583\"><a href=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/foresee-scenarios-for-assessing-the-impacts-of-emerging-urban-mobility-environments\/co-creating-and-utilizing-scenarios\/\" title=\"Co-creating and utilizing scenarios\" rel=\"\">Co-creating and utilizing scenarios<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-586\"><a href=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/foresee-scenarios-for-assessing-the-impacts-of-emerging-urban-mobility-environments\/assessing-the-impacts-of-mobility-scenarios\/\" title=\"Assessing the impacts of mobility scenarios\" rel=\"\">Assessing the impacts of mobility scenarios<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"page_item page-item-606\"><a href=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/foresee-scenarios-for-assessing-the-impacts-of-emerging-urban-mobility-environments\/assessing-the-policy-impacts-of-mobility-scenarios\/\" title=\"Deriving policies that are coherent with the scenarios\" rel=\"\">Deriving policies that are coherent with the scenarios<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column]<style type=\"text\/css\">@media (min-width:992px){.empty_space69d5812367c69 {padding-top: 20;}}@media (max-width:991px){.empty_space69d5812367c69 {padding-top: 15;}}@media (max-width:600px){.empty_space69d5812367c69 {padding-top: 10;}}<\/style><div class=\"pt-plus-empty-space empty_space69d5812367c69 \" data-uid=\"empty_space69d5812367c69\" ><\/div><div id=\"ultimate-heading-726869d5812367ca0\" class=\"uvc-heading ult-adjust-bottom-margin ultimate-heading-726869d5812367ca0 uvc-9738 \" data-hspacer=\"no_spacer\"  data-halign=\"left\" style=\"text-align:left\"><div class=\"uvc-heading-spacer no_spacer\" style=\"top\"><\/div><div class=\"uvc-main-heading ult-responsive\"  data-ultimate-target='.uvc-heading.ultimate-heading-726869d5812367ca0 h4'  data-responsive-json-new='{\"font-size\":\"\",\"line-height\":\"\"}' ><h4 style=\"font-weight:bold;color:#4b6584;\">Related Tools<\/h4><\/div><\/div>[vc_column_text]<div class='w3eden'>\n    <div class=''>\n\n        \n        <div id=\"content_wpdm_package_1\">\n            <div class='row'><div class='col-lg-4 col-md-6 col-12'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Default Template -->\n\n<div class=\"link-template-default card mb-2\">\n    <div class=\"card-body\">\n        <div class=\"media\">\n            <div class=\"mr-3 img-48\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpdm_icon\" alt=\"Icon\" src=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/wp-content\/plugins\/download-manager\/assets\/file-type-icons\/pdf.svg\" \/><\/div>\n            <div class=\"media-body\">\n                <h3 class=\"package-title\"><a href='https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/sprout-indicators-for-assessing-city-specific-scenarios\/'>SPROUT Indicators for assessing city specific scenarios<\/a><\/h3>\n                <div class=\"text-muted text-small\"><i class=\"fas fa-copy\"><\/i> 1 file(s) <i class=\"fas fa-hdd ml-3\"><\/i> 89.02 KB<\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ml-3\">\n                <a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary '  rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/sprout-indicators-for-assessing-city-specific-scenarios\/?wpdmdl=1151&refresh=69d581236e5991775599907\">Download<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<!-- Template 'Card: Horizontal' not found, using default link template --><\/div><div class='col-lg-4 col-md-6 col-12'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Default Template -->\n\n<div class=\"link-template-default card mb-2\">\n    <div class=\"card-body\">\n        <div class=\"media\">\n            <div class=\"mr-3 img-48\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpdm_icon\" alt=\"Icon\" src=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/wp-content\/plugins\/download-manager\/assets\/file-type-icons\/web.svg\" \/><\/div>\n            <div class=\"media-body\">\n                <h3 class=\"package-title\"><a href='https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/eu-survey-tool\/'>EU Survey Tool<\/a><\/h3>\n                <div class=\"text-muted text-small\"><i class=\"fas fa-copy\"><\/i> 1 file(s) <i class=\"fas fa-hdd ml-3\"><\/i> 0.00 KB<\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ml-3\">\n                <a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary '  rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/eu-survey-tool\/?wpdmdl=1135&refresh=69d58123727d61775599907\">Download<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    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class=\"ml-3\">\n                <a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary '  rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/sprout-video-presentation-on-the-pilot-evaluation-framework\/?wpdmdl=971&refresh=69d58123749bf1775599907\">Download<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<!-- Template 'Card: Horizontal' not found, using default link template --><\/div><div class='col-lg-4 col-md-6 col-12'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Default Template -->\n\n<div class=\"link-template-default card mb-2\">\n    <div class=\"card-body\">\n        <div class=\"media\">\n            <div class=\"mr-3 img-48\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpdm_icon\" alt=\"Icon\" src=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/wp-content\/plugins\/download-manager\/assets\/file-type-icons\/web.svg\" \/><\/div>\n            <div class=\"media-body\">\n                <h3 class=\"package-title\"><a href='https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/eu-handbook-on-the-external-costs-of-transport\/'>EU Handbook on the external costs of transport<\/a><\/h3>\n                <div class=\"text-muted text-small\"><i class=\"fas fa-copy\"><\/i> 1 file(s) <i class=\"fas fa-hdd ml-3\"><\/i> 0.00 KB<\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ml-3\">\n                <a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary '  rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/eu-handbook-on-the-external-costs-of-transport\/?wpdmdl=879&refresh=69d5812376c071775599907\">Download<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<!-- Template 'Card: Horizontal' not found, using default link template --><\/div><div class='col-lg-4 col-md-6 col-12'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Default Template -->\n\n<div class=\"link-template-default card mb-2\">\n    <div class=\"card-body\">\n        <div class=\"media\">\n            <div class=\"mr-3 img-48\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpdm_icon\" alt=\"Icon\" src=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/wp-content\/plugins\/download-manager\/assets\/file-type-icons\/web.svg\" \/><\/div>\n            <div class=\"media-body\">\n                <h3 class=\"package-title\"><a href='https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/sprout-evaluation-framework\/'>SPROUT Evaluation Framework<\/a><\/h3>\n                <div class=\"text-muted text-small\"><i class=\"fas fa-copy\"><\/i> 1 file(s) <i class=\"fas fa-hdd ml-3\"><\/i> 0.00 KB<\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ml-3\">\n                <a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary '  rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/sprout-evaluation-framework\/?wpdmdl=830&refresh=69d58123790501775599907\">Download<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<!-- Template 'Card: Horizontal' not found, using default link template --><\/div><div class='col-lg-4 col-md-6 col-12'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Default Template -->\n\n<div class=\"link-template-default card mb-2\">\n    <div class=\"card-body\">\n        <div class=\"media\">\n            <div class=\"mr-3 img-48\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpdm_icon\" alt=\"Icon\" src=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/wp-content\/plugins\/download-manager\/assets\/file-type-icons\/pdf.svg\" \/><\/div>\n            <div class=\"media-body\">\n                <h3 class=\"package-title\"><a href='https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/sprout-urban-mobility-transition-drivers-and-stakeholders-template-kpis\/'>SPROUT - Catalogue of urban mobility stakeholders<\/a><\/h3>\n                <div class=\"text-muted text-small\"><i class=\"fas fa-copy\"><\/i> 1 file(s) <i class=\"fas fa-hdd ml-3\"><\/i> 83.67 KB<\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ml-3\">\n                <a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary '  rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/sprout-urban-mobility-transition-drivers-and-stakeholders-template-kpis\/?wpdmdl=806&refresh=69d581237bf211775599907\">Download<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<!-- Template 'Card: Horizontal' not found, using default link template --><\/div><div class='col-lg-4 col-md-6 col-12'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Default Template -->\n\n<div class=\"link-template-default card mb-2\">\n    <div class=\"card-body\">\n        <div class=\"media\">\n            <div class=\"mr-3 img-48\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpdm_icon\" alt=\"Icon\" src=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/wp-content\/plugins\/download-manager\/assets\/file-type-icons\/web.svg\" \/><\/div>\n            <div class=\"media-body\">\n                <h3 class=\"package-title\"><a href='https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/sumi-sustainable-urban-mobility-indicators\/'>SUMI Sustainable Urban Mobility Indicators<\/a><\/h3>\n                <div class=\"text-muted text-small\"><i class=\"fas fa-copy\"><\/i> 1 file(s) <i class=\"fas fa-hdd ml-3\"><\/i> 0.00 KB<\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ml-3\">\n                <a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary '  rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/sumi-sustainable-urban-mobility-indicators\/?wpdmdl=762&refresh=69d581237ee391775599907\">Download<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<!-- Template 'Card: Horizontal' not found, using default link template --><\/div><div class='col-lg-4 col-md-6 col-12'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Default Template -->\n\n<div class=\"link-template-default card mb-2\">\n    <div class=\"card-body\">\n        <div class=\"media\">\n            <div class=\"mr-3 img-48\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wpdm_icon\" alt=\"Icon\" 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href='https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/sprout-instructions-for-moderating-narrative-workshops\/'>SPROUT - Instructions for moderating narrative workshops<\/a><\/h3>\n                <div class=\"text-muted text-small\"><i class=\"fas fa-copy\"><\/i> 1 file(s) <i class=\"fas fa-hdd ml-3\"><\/i> 4.77 MB<\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ml-3\">\n                <a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary '  rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/sprout-instructions-for-moderating-narrative-workshops\/?wpdmdl=719&refresh=69d5812387e6c1775599907\">Download<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<!-- Template 'Card: Horizontal' not found, using default link template --><\/div><div class='col-lg-4 col-md-6 col-12'><!-- WPDM Link Template: Default Template -->\n\n<div class=\"link-template-default card mb-2\">\n    <div 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Mobility Transition Drivers<\/a><\/h3>\n                <div class=\"text-muted text-small\"><i class=\"fas fa-copy\"><\/i> 1 file(s) <i class=\"fas fa-hdd ml-3\"><\/i> 463.86 KB<\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"ml-3\">\n                <a class='wpdm-download-link download-on-click btn btn-primary '  rel='nofollow' href='#' data-downloadurl=\"https:\/\/sprouttoolbox.nuacampus.org\/index.php\/download\/sprout-catalogue-of-urban-mobility-transition-drivers\/?wpdmdl=697&refresh=69d581238b8821775599907\">Download<\/a>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<!-- Template 'Card: Horizontal' not found, using default link template --><\/div><\/div>            <div style='clear:both'><\/div><div class='text-center'><ul class='pagination wpdm-pagination pagination-centered text-center async'><\/ul><\/div><div style='clear:both'><\/div>        <\/div>\n\n        <div style='clear:both'><\/div>\n    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